Monday, October 12, 2009

Ratings Based Racing: Are You confused?

By David Gately

In the racing vernacular, the word 'rating' is thrown around a fair bit... It can mean a number of things: A computer generated number (rating) given to a horse based on racetrack performances; a ranking of horses relative to one-another with a mix between statistics and human involvement/opinion; or even simply an opinion given on a race whereby the punter 'ranks' each horse from favourite to least favourite. These "ratings" are quite different from the 'ratings-based racing' which has arrived recently to racing.

So what are ratings-based races? Basically each horse is given a "rating" which is updated after every start they have. A horse cannot run in a race which is rated under their level. For example, if their rating is 69 then they cannot run in a 68RB (Ratings-Based) race, where as they can race in a 70RB (or higher obviously).

Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by "discretionary" handicapping. (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse's weight) We cannot expect that a horse having a "ratings" adjustment after a particular race, will meet each runner that finished in front of him or her in that race, on better terms in the next race.

In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: "Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can't have an 'off day', wet/dry tracks doesn't bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough".

Computer Ratings cannot give you all the information, for example, a horse early in his/her career or even early in his/her preparation has "upside" or scope to improve many lengths... No computer can judge for this.

Finding value runners is always the way professional punters have operated, there are many favourites that run that have little hope of actually winning. These horse's are referred to as "unders" (under their true odds of winning) and when identified can set you up for a nice collect if you can work around them in betting. How do we identify such 'unders'? Well, it gets back to knowing each horse and his/her particular likes and dislikes. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com thinks this is rule No.1. He explains: "Look, knowing a horse's capabilities, his likes or dislikes, his personality if you like, are keys to having half this battle (of finding value runners/winners) won".

So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).

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